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The median U.S. sale price is up 5% year over year. But there are signs that price growth could slow soon, with the average home selling for under list price, inventory rising and a high share of listings growing stale.
The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $397,482 during the four weeks ending July 7, up 4.7% year over year–the biggest increase in over four months. This marks the ninth straight week the median sale price has reached a new record high.
Sale prices have remained stubbornly high despite elevated mortgage rates pushing down homebuying demand; pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year and mortgage-purchase applications are down 13%. That’s partly because inventory remains historically low, pushing up prices and pushing down sales. And it’s partly because final sale prices are a lagging indicator–they reflect deals that were struck between buyers and sellers a month or two earlier.
There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon. The typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price, marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price at the start of July since 2020, when the onset of the pandemic nearly ground the housing market to a halt. Additionally, just 32% of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago and the lowest share at this time of year since 2020.
Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may lose steam in the coming months. New listings are up 7.3% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract. More homes are hitting the market partly because mortgage rates have been sitting at double pandemic-era lows for nearly two years, and sellers are tired of waiting for rates to drop before they move on to their next home.
“Homes are sitting longer than they usually do this time of year, which has led to some–but not all–homes selling for a little bit less,” said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay Area. “The longer rates stay high, the pickier buyers are getting. Buyers will jump ship or try to negotiate the price down with any sort of tiny problem; sellers should take the time to prep, price and promote their homes correctly to find the right buyer. That being said, there is one segment of the market that is still moving fast, with homes going over asking price with multiple offers: Move-in ready homes with big backyards located in desirable school districts.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
6.99% (July 10)
Down from 7.14% a week earlier; first time in about a month it has dropped below 7%
Down from 7.12%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
6.95% (week ending July 3)
Up from 6.86% a week earlier; first increase after 4 straight weeks of declines
Up from 6.81%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)
Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending July 5)
Down 13%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)
Up 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending July 7)
Down 16%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity
Flat from the start of the year (as of July 7)
At this time last year, it was up 1% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”
Up 17% from a month earlier (as of July 7)
Down 14%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending July 7, 2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$397,482
4.7%
All-time high; biggest increase in 4 months
Median asking price
$406,000
5.4%
Lowest level in 3 months
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,742 at a 6.95% mortgage rate
5.3%
$95 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
83,410
-3.5%
New listings
93,452
7.3%
Active listings
970,503
18.3%
Smallest increase in over 2 months
Months of supply
3.6
+0.8 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks
41.1%
Down from 45%
Median days on market
32
+4 days
Share of homes sold above list price
31.9%
Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price drop
6.5%
+1.8 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio
99.6%
-0.4 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 7, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
West Palm Beach, FL (13.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (13%)
Detroit (12.9%)
New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%)
Anaheim, CA (12.2%)
Austin, TX (-1.9%)
Dallas (-1.2%)
Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (18.8%)
San Francisco (9.4%)
Boston (9.2%)
Montgomery County, PA (3.8%)
Columbus, OH (2.8%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%)
Houston (-13.8%)
Miami (-13.6%)
Minneapolis (-12.5%)
Atlanta (-11.7%)
Increased in 12 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (29.3%)
Jacksonville, FL (21.2%)
Las Vegas (21.2%)
Miami (19.9%)
Phoenix (16.4%)
Atlanta (-9.8%)
Minneapolis (-6.2%)
Chicago (-5.4%)
San Francisco (-4.9%)
Portland, OR (-4.3%)
Declined in 9 metros
Refer to our metrics definition page for explanations of all the metrics used in this report.
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This article was originally published by a www.redfin.com . Read the Original article here. .